Monday, May 02, 2005
More wards...
Easton
Another part of the once solid Labour Party inner-city heartlands, this is social services boss Robin Moss's ward. During in his four years in office Moss has seen his personal income triple but his ward has considerably deteriorated. Crime has shot up, little effective regeneration has taken place, an unpopular New Labour academy has been built, the area's last piece of open space is to be privatised and developed and even its community centre has gone bankrupt
Despite the area's urgent need for regeneration little has happened. Funding going into the area is low, sporadic and ineffective. There has also been a massive displacement of crime from St Pauls, which has obtained high levels of investment recently due to the Broadmead development.
Moss's personal popularity in the ward is therefore at an all time low. This combined with his ineffective and unpopular management of the social services budget means he is almost certain to lose his seat. He has privately admitted as much.
The Lib Dems have been campaigning hard in the ward. Their candidate Abdul Malik has been particularly targetting the moslem vote and the Lib Dem anti-war message should be highly effective here.
Sadly there's no Independent candidate running this time, despite The Bristolian's Jane Nicholl picking up 15% of the vote and coming in third last time. The Greens may benefit from this.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lib Dem Gain
Eastville
Tough one to call. the Lib Dems won this last time in a low turnout election. The Labour Party scraped it in 2001 with a high turnout from the general election. The Lib Dem candidate in 2001, Tony Locke, is now running as an Independent and may get a large personal vote, thanks to his tireless campaigning on the prostitution issue in the area.
On balance, the Lib Dems should take the ward. The combination of their local campaigning skills and the poor quality of the previous Labour Councillor, Judy Patterson should be enough to get them in. But it depends on Locke, how many votes he takes and who he takes them from. A very tight call.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lib Dem Gain
Frome Vale
The Conservatives fancy this one. They took it last time in 2003 with 45% of the vote. Ineffective Labour Councillor Alun Davies has done his party few favours here and even with the boost of a high turnout from a general election they have little chance.
The Blogonian Prediction: Con Gain
Henbury
A solid Labour Ward where they regularly poll double the main challengers - The Tories. Labour have selected a dubious South Bristol Party fixer - Derek Pickup - for the seat. He might not get much of a personal vote but he should walk it. It'll be interesting to see how his past reputation plays once he's in the Council House.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lab Hold
Henleaze
The Lib Dems regularly receive over 50% of the vote in this ward. They should do again especially as the ward falls in the Bristol West constituency. Like him or loathe him, Dennis Brown will be back.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lib Dem Hold
Another part of the once solid Labour Party inner-city heartlands, this is social services boss Robin Moss's ward. During in his four years in office Moss has seen his personal income triple but his ward has considerably deteriorated. Crime has shot up, little effective regeneration has taken place, an unpopular New Labour academy has been built, the area's last piece of open space is to be privatised and developed and even its community centre has gone bankrupt
Despite the area's urgent need for regeneration little has happened. Funding going into the area is low, sporadic and ineffective. There has also been a massive displacement of crime from St Pauls, which has obtained high levels of investment recently due to the Broadmead development.
Moss's personal popularity in the ward is therefore at an all time low. This combined with his ineffective and unpopular management of the social services budget means he is almost certain to lose his seat. He has privately admitted as much.
The Lib Dems have been campaigning hard in the ward. Their candidate Abdul Malik has been particularly targetting the moslem vote and the Lib Dem anti-war message should be highly effective here.
Sadly there's no Independent candidate running this time, despite The Bristolian's Jane Nicholl picking up 15% of the vote and coming in third last time. The Greens may benefit from this.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lib Dem Gain
Eastville
Tough one to call. the Lib Dems won this last time in a low turnout election. The Labour Party scraped it in 2001 with a high turnout from the general election. The Lib Dem candidate in 2001, Tony Locke, is now running as an Independent and may get a large personal vote, thanks to his tireless campaigning on the prostitution issue in the area.
On balance, the Lib Dems should take the ward. The combination of their local campaigning skills and the poor quality of the previous Labour Councillor, Judy Patterson should be enough to get them in. But it depends on Locke, how many votes he takes and who he takes them from. A very tight call.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lib Dem Gain
Frome Vale
The Conservatives fancy this one. They took it last time in 2003 with 45% of the vote. Ineffective Labour Councillor Alun Davies has done his party few favours here and even with the boost of a high turnout from a general election they have little chance.
The Blogonian Prediction: Con Gain
Henbury
A solid Labour Ward where they regularly poll double the main challengers - The Tories. Labour have selected a dubious South Bristol Party fixer - Derek Pickup - for the seat. He might not get much of a personal vote but he should walk it. It'll be interesting to see how his past reputation plays once he's in the Council House.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lab Hold
Henleaze
The Lib Dems regularly receive over 50% of the vote in this ward. They should do again especially as the ward falls in the Bristol West constituency. Like him or loathe him, Dennis Brown will be back.
The Blogonian Prediction: Lib Dem Hold
# posted by Bristol Blogger @ 11:26 AM 
