Wednesday, May 04, 2005

 

Wishful thinking meets blind ignorance

Well here goes... Admittedly I know nothing about general elections and I'm more familiar with talking bollocks in Totterdown pubs than trading political gossip in the bars of Westminster, but here's the Blogonian's general election predictions...

Bristol East
A Labour majority of nearly 14,000 means an ultra-safe seat. But let's look at a few facts: The Labour candidate is from Luton and arrived in Bristol only a month ago. The Labour candidate has run a lacklustre campaign, hiding from the electorate and hoping the huge majority will see her through. The Labour candidate is an out-and-out New Labour yes-women parachuted into Bristol at the last possible moment. The former Labour MP - Jean Corston - was invisible in Bristol East.
And this constituency has a significant moslem vote that many predictions say will go elsewhere but the Labour Party. The Lib Dems have been courting the Moslem vote. The constituency has a significant anti-war vote. The Lib Dems have been courting the anti-war vote. The constituency has many disgruntled old Labourites. The Lib Dems have been courting the disgruntled old Labour vote.
But let's look at a few more facts: Little effort has been made in the constituency to organise or promote tactical voting. The Respect candidate could draw a significant anti-war vote and old Labour vote as could the Greens. Plus the Tories came second last time.
Overall Blogonian prognosis: Lab Hold with 7,000 - 9,000 majority (Lib Dems second, Tories third, Greens, UKIP and Respect lose deposits). A missed opportunity.

Bristol North West
A Labour majority of over 10,000 means an ultra-safe seat. Not many ifs and buts to this either. The Tories are traditionally second and will remain so with an increased vote. A bit of an anti-Labour vote to the Lib Dems will further reduce the majority.
Overall Blogonian prognosis: Lab Hold with at least 5,000 majority (Tories second, Lib Dems third, UKIP, Socialist Alternative and English Democrat lose deposits). If you want Labour out then you have to vote Tory. A depressing seat.

Bristol South
A Labour majority of over 14,000 means yet another ultra-safe seat. No organisation or promotion of tactical voting in the constituency means a significant anti-Primarolo and anti-New Labour vote is likely to be divided between the Tories, the Lib Dems and the Greens.
The Tories stance on immigration is said to be playing well in some areas...
Overall Blogonian prognosis: Lab Hold with 8,000 majority (Tories second, Lib Dems third, Greens just keep their deposit, UKIP lose deposit). If you want Labour out then don't vote Green, vote Lib Dem and pray loads of Tories think the same thing. Basically impossible for Primarolo to lose but a substantially reduced majority might get her worried.

Bristol West
To be honest I haven't got a fucking clue. It seems to be a battle between the Lib Dems and Labour with the Tories trailing third. The anti-war vote will put the Lib Dems ahead of the Tories but will it be by enough? And how much will Davey's vote collapse and where will it go?
Overall Blogonian prognosis: Lib Dem Gain with 2,000 majority (Labour second, Tories third, Greens, UKIP, Save Bristol North Baths and Socialists lose their deposit). If you want Labour out or you're anti-war then don't vote bother voting Green, vote Lib Dem or you might let the Tories in. This is the one to watch on the night.

THE BLOGONIAN'S GRAND GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTION
Er, Tony Blair to be forming a government with a majority of around 100. Depressing innit? Although there might be a few entertaining thrills and spills on the night.

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